Marek Plota is a founder and a head of the legal team at RM Legal Law Firm and Gaming In Poland, providing multidisciplinary and multijurisdictional support for leading international gambling operators in the Polish, European Union and African markets. His gambling practice includes regulatory support at pre and post licensing stage, IT, taxation services, as well as unique service of performing a function of a gambling representative. RM Legal is the only law firm in Poland representing offshore companies operating legally on the Polish gambling market. Apart from the gambling Marek specializes in corporate commercial law and international investment projects.

A Market on the Rise 

Poland’s regulated gambling industry is one of Central Europe’s most dynamic markets. In 2024, gross gaming revenue (GGR) from the regulated online sector reached around €900 million, marking a 25 percent increase year-on-year. Sports betting remains the engine of this growth, supported by a robust licensing regime and a channelisation rate of approximately 76 percent.

The online casino segment tells a different story. Under Polish law, only the state-owned operator, Totalizator Sportowy, is authorised to run online casino games. Despite significant investment in its platform, its market share is capped by structural constraints, most notably, strict advertising restrictions, leaving roughly 40 percent of the segment in the hands of unlicensed offshore operators. This dual reality has created a paradox: a growing legal market operating alongside a grey market of comparable size, with illegal online gambling turnover estimated at PLN 65 billion annually.

The Weight of a Tax Model

One of the longest-running debates in Polish gambling policy concerns its tax structure. The 12 percent turnover tax on betting is among the highest in Europe and is widely criticised as a disincentive for legal operators. Industry stakeholders have repeatedly called for a shift to a GGR-based model, which would better reflect actual operator margins and align Poland with prevailing European standards.

Proponents argue that a GGR model could improve market transparency, boost channelisation, and ultimately increase state tax revenue. Critics, however, point to the solid headline growth of the sector as evidence that change is unnecessary. This tension between short-term fiscal comfort and long-term structural health remains at the heart of the policy debate.

Regulatory Shifts and Institutional Reforms

While legislative reform has yet to materialise, the past 18 months have brought notable structural changes. In October 2024, the Ministry of Finance created the Department for Gambling Market Regulation and Gambling Tax, a specialised body tasked with both enforcement and policy development. This centralisation is a long-overdue step towards more professionalised oversight, replacing the previously fragmented supervisory model.

Further momentum came in April 2025 with the formation of the Inter-Ministerial Team for Countering the Grey Zone. Its remit extends from data-driven monitoring of illegal activity to developing legislative and technological tools to disrupt it. Initiatives under discussion include improved payment-blocking mechanisms in partnership with banks and fintech companies, tighter cooperation with digital platforms to block illegal advertising, and faster, more sophisticated domain-blocking systems.

Political Polarisation and the Reform Horizon

The June 2025 presidential election has set the stage for an adversarial relationship between President-elect Karol Nawrocki, backed by the conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS), and Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition government. In practice, this means any legislative reform is likely to face a presidential veto, which the current parliamentary arithmetic cannot override.

This political gridlock is compounded by the lingering shadow of the 2009 “gambling scandal”, which makes liberalisation politically sensitive for certain parties. As a result, many in the industry have shifted their reform expectations towards the 2027 elections, when a re-shaped coalition could change the political calculus. One possible scenario involves tactical alliances or even a coalition with the libertarian-leaning Konfederacja party, currently the only political force openly advocating gambling reform.

Opportunities in the Midst of Constraints

Despite ongoing challenges, Poland’s gambling market is becoming increasingly attractive for licensed operators. The growing effectiveness of grey-market enforcement is reshaping the competitive landscape. High taxes and the continuing online casino monopoly may still raise questions about immediate profitability, but the systematic restriction of illegal operators is creating new prospects for those willing to take a long-term view.

Measures such as the creation of specialised supervisory bodies, intensified cooperation with payment providers, and the development of tools to block illegal advertising and domains are steadily improving transparency and predictability. Combined with the relatively low cost of a licence, approximately EUR 175,000, this means securing one now can be a strategically sound move, even if an operator chooses to delay a full launch until after expected tax reforms or monopoly liberalisation.

A Market at a Crossroads

Poland stands at a turning point: the market is growing, yet more than 1.2 million players still regularly use unlicensed platforms. Newly established oversight structures, increasingly bold political debate, and a growing recognition that the current model is unsustainable all suggest that change is possible, although its scope and timing will depend on political dynamics in the coming years.

Recent enforcement actions, however, show that the market’s potential is already starting to be unlocked. Following consultations with Totalizator Sportowy and other stakeholders, the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (UKNF) prompted domestic payment service providers to cut ties with unlicensed gambling operators. Popular payment methods, including BLIK, used by around 80 percent of customers of licensed operators, have been removed from illegal sites. This is not just a political signal, it is a tangible operational barrier to the grey market, improving market channelisation, strengthening AML standards, and enhancing enforcement efficiency.

For international operators, this is the moment when Poland is emerging as a more predictable, better-regulated environment for compliant business. Securing a licence now, even if full operations are launched only after anticipated legislative changes, offers a strategic head start in a market that could enter a phase of rapid transformation in the coming years.