New York is proposing Assembly Bill A9251, known as the Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events (ORACLE Act), which aims to regulate prediction markets across the state. The bill would prohibit markets based on sports events, political outcomes, deaths, disasters, and financial securities, while allowing broader tournament-level forecasts such as predicting championship winners. It also introduces stricter consumer protection measures, advertising rules, and enforcement mechanisms like those used in licensed sportsbook operations.
Assembly Bill A9251, introduced by Assemblymember Clyde Vanel, is currently under review by the Assembly Committee on Consumer Affairs and Protection. The bill proposes banning prediction markets tied to sports events, political outcomes, death, disasters, and financial securities, citing concerns over manipulation and social impact. It distinguishes between full-event outcomes and in-event propositions, such as player performance or point spreads, which are considered higher risk due to their fast-paced nature.
While Assembly Bill A9251 proposes broad restrictions on prediction markets, it allows trading on tournament-level outcomes such as who wins the NBA Championship or March Madness brackets. These are considered slower-paced and less prone to rapid speculation.
Assembly Bill A9251 includes a range of consumer protection measures, such as age restrictions, self-exclusion options, spending limits, visible helpline information, and advertising controls, like those required for licensed sportsbooks. The aim is to apply consistent safeguards to platforms that resemble betting services.
The bill also discusses the differences between gaming and financial tools. Lawmakers contend that the experience can encourage gambling-like behaviour when payouts are dependent on uncertain results and the UI mimics betting sites. Limiting exposure to high-risk categories like micro-markets and delicate subjects like death or political events is the main goal.
To reduce risks related to addiction and youth exposure, the bill proposes banning marketing to users under 21, restricting promotional language, and disabling push notifications that encourage frequent engagement.
The bill prohibits the use of credit cards for funding accounts and bans push notifications that promote betting or advertise bonuses unrelated to a user’s active positions. Advertising rules under the bill would restrict the use of terms like “risk-free” and require clear visibility of New York’s problem gambling helpline across platforms and promotional materials.
Assembly Bill A9251 includes a provision that would prevent platforms from offering markets if their liquidity providers or market makers are involved in gaming activities, including affiliates or joint ventures. This could restrict sportsbooks or related entities from participating in prediction market operations.
The measure may affect companies like DraftKings and FanDuel, which have explored event-based contracts. If passed, the bill would enforce a clearer separation between traditional sportsbooks and prediction market platforms in New York.
The New York Attorney General may request court injunctions against sites that violate Assembly Bill A9251. A platform may be subject to daily civil penalties of up to $1 million if it operates in restricted markets after being told to cease. The enforcement framework is intended to guarantee adherence and discourage infractions.
Assembly Bill A9251 raises questions about the balance between state and federal authority over prediction markets. Platforms such as Kalshi contend that state-level limitations should be superseded by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulation, especially for contracts that have already undergone legal scrutiny.
Kalshi previously received a cease-and-desist order from New York’s gambling regulator, which prompted the platform to file a lawsuit. Event-based contracts have also been targeted for enforcement by other states, such as Massachusetts, which has framed them as unauthorised sports betting. The legal discussion is still ongoing and unresolved.
Assembly Bill A9251 is under review by the Standing Committee on Consumer Affairs and Protection. If approved, the attorney general would be in charge of enforcing the law, with an emphasis on protecting consumers and monitoring speculative online marketplaces.
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