A new nationwide survey conducted by Axis Research shows that nearly nine in ten American voters (89 percent) believe all Americans should have the right to participate in prediction markets, signaling strong bipartisan approval for platforms that allow trading on real-world events.
The poll, commissioned by Kalshi, found that 54 percent strongly agree that people should have the freedom to decide for themselves whether to participate in these markets. Furthermore, 70 percent of voters say Americans should be able to invest in specific outcomes, such as changes in gold prices, election results, or agricultural futures.
Support cuts across party lines, about 75 percent of Republicans and 71 percent of Democrats back prediction markets, as well as all income groups. Even among nonparticipants, 65 percent say Americans should have access to these platforms.
According to the findings, a large majority of voters distinguish prediction markets from gambling, viewing them instead as legitimate financial investments.
Nearly 89 percent of respondents consider trading stocks, mutual funds, or commodities to be investing, while only 11 percent associate these activities with gambling. Reflecting this view, 79 percent of voters say federal regulators, not state gaming commissions, should oversee prediction markets and similar investment platforms.
This sentiment holds strong across political affiliations, ethnic backgrounds, and both experienced investors and non-investors, suggesting widespread support for a unified federal regulatory framework.
When it comes to sports prediction markets, most Americans continue to separate them from traditional gambling. Roughly 63 percent of respondents agree that these markets aggregate information to produce real-time probabilities and should be seen as analytical tools rather than games of chance.
Similarly, 60 percent believe participating in sports prediction markets requires skill and analysis similar to investing, while 59 percent say such platforms provide a public good by creating forecasts that benefit media, leagues, and sports organizations.
The survey also reveals that voters are skeptical of state intervention in prediction markets. Two-thirds (67 percent) see state-level regulation as a “power play” designed to extract revenue and limit innovation, while only 33 percent view it as necessary gambling oversight.
Respondents say that shifting regulation to state gaming commissions would hurt consumers, particularly middle- and lower-income households, by introducing confusion, inefficiency, and the potential for corruption.
Kalshi’s rapid rise comes amid mounting legal challenges, with the prediction market platform currently entangled in multiple lawsuits and regulatory disputes across several states, including cases against regulators in New York and Ohio, a lawsuit from Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Campbell, and a tribal injunction that recently dealt it a court setback.
Despite the legal turbulence, Kalshi secured a $300 million Series D funding round in October, led by Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), valuing the company at around $5 billion, more than double its valuation just four months earlier.
In a recent development, Kalshi has defended against a preliminary injunction request in Blue Lake Rancheria v. Kalshi. A Kalshi spokesperson provided this comment about the ruling: “We welcome today’s decision denying the plaintiff tribes’ motion for a preliminary injunction. Kalshi’s nationwide, federally-regulated exchange offers all users a fair and transparent way to trade event contracts. Casinos located on tribal lands offer their customers a fundamentally different product.”
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