Macau’s gaming industry may see a profound transformation as stricter regulations on deposits and limitations on gaming promoters take hold. The changes, implemented over the past four years, might position the city as a mass-market tourism destination, reducing reliance on the high-rolling VIP junket segment, as per a study by the University of Macau.
According to the study by João Ilhão Moreira and Yudi Zhou from the University of Macau’s Faculty of Law, the city’s regulatory overhaul hinges on balanced measures of joint liability. The new framework may encourage casinos to exercise oversight of junket operators while ensuring they are not unduly burdened by liabilities for actions beyond their control.
Macau’s Gaming Law (Law No. 16/2022) has been pivotal in driving these changes. The law criminalised unlawful deposit-taking and places joint liability on casino concessionaires for junket-related activities unless they can prove diligent oversight.
High-profile cases of financial misconduct, such as those involving Suncity and Dore, have amplified the need for these stricter measures. Past cases of financial misconduct, like those involving Suncity and Dore, made these reforms necessary. The updated laws aim to make gambling in Macau safer and more transparent.
Experts say the new rules are helping Macau move away from VIP-focused gambling to a more sustainable model. With better oversight and stricter laws, Macau is working to become a tourist hotspot that relies on mass-market visitors rather than high-rolling gamblers.
The shift appears to be working, with mass-market baccarat revenues reaching MOP 137.9 billion (€14.1 billion) last year, exceeding pre-pandemic figures. In contrast, VIP baccarat revenues fell sharply, accounting for just 24 per cent of total gross gaming revenue in 2024.
Macau officials have also set a very ambitious target. The Macau Government Tourism Office (MGTO) has adjusted its forecast, now anticipating between 38 million and 40 million tourist arrivals for 2025. This range suggests a potential 5.6 percent increase over previous estimates and aligns closely with the 39.4 million visitors recorded in 2019.
This optimistic outlook is bolstered by some policy changes too, notably the easing of travel visa requirements for residents of Zhuhai, Guangdong province, which took effect on 1 January 2025. Since then, there has been a 26.1 percent year-on-year increase in Macau-bound trips from Zhuhai, totaling 257,000 visits till now.
In tandem with the anticipated surge in visitor numbers, the Macau SAR Government has
projected gross gaming revenues (GGR) to reach MOP$240 billion (approximately €28.9 billion) in 2025. This figure represents an 11 percent increase over the 2024 estimate and reflects confidence in the continued recovery of the integrated tourism and leisure industry.
Even analysts share this optimism. Goldman Sachs forecasts an 8 percent year-on-year growth in Macau’s GGR for 2025, driven by robust travel spending among Chinese tourists. The investment bank anticipates a 9 percent rise in mass-market GGR and a 4 percent increase in VIP revenue, leading to an expected 11 percent growth in EBITDA for the industry.
Similarly, Seaport Research Partners projects a 7 percent growth in GGR for 2025, with larger operators like Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment Group poised to benefit the most.
S&P Global Ratings offers a slightly more conservative outlook, estimating a 5 percent to 6 percent growth in GGR for 2025.
The agency expects mass gaming to surpass pre-pandemic levels by 15 percent to 20 percent, while VIP volumes are likely to remain near current low levels unless regulatory changes occur.
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