The analysis highlights rising fiscal pressure on licensed operators in the country.
 

Key Points

Study projects betting tax burden rising from 32% to 42% by 2033

Increase driven by tax reform and new indirect taxation structure

Industry warns excessive taxation could impact market viability and channel users to illegal operators
 

Brazil’s regulated betting sector could face a total tax burden of up to 42% by 2033, according to a study conducted by LCA Consultoria for the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR).

The analysis estimates a 10 percentage point increase from the current level of around 32%, largely driven by the implementation of Brazil’s ongoing tax reform. 

The transition, which began in 2026, will gradually replace existing taxes with the new CBS (Contribution on Goods and Services) and IBS (Tax on Goods and Services), which are expected to carry higher effective rates.

What are the perspectives of betting industry stakeholders on this?

Industry stakeholders have raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of increasing fiscal pressure. 

Plínio Lemos Jorge, president of the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), stated that operators entered the Brazilian market under specific tax assumptions and warned against incremental increases over time.

“If the rules of the game do not change, it can continue like this. But if taxes keep increasing gradually, operations may no longer be viable,” he said.

Eric Brasil, director at LCA Consultoria, noted that under the new framework, the base tax rate for goods and services could reach 28%, placing the betting sector significantly above the average burden for other industries.

According to IBJR director André Gelfi, each five percentage point increase in legal market participation could generate an additional BR1bn in tax revenue. 

He cautioned that excessive taxation may instead push consumers towards unregulated operators, reducing both fiscal returns and consumer protections.

The findings come as Brazil’s betting market continues to scale following regulation. In 2025, the sector recorded 83 licensed operators, 29.4 million active users andbillions in tax revenue.

 

 

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